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Post by Great Gozu on Aug 21, 2018 21:24:54 GMT
OK, I Finally got done with all the confessionals of players who weren't voted out. I really, realy hope Himiko does more. This is really unfortunate, because I like Coug and think he could do really well if he had the time/effort.
On the other hand, I'm still not sure if Junko exists, and dear christ I feel bad for Sonia because she got rotten luck with her clique.If I had to predict 12 player merge right now purely based off of their ability to make it to merge it would look something like this:
1 - Celestia 2 - Makoto 3 - Yasuhiro 4 - Gonta 5 - Akane - BIG DIVIDE- 6 - Leon 7 - Hiyoko 8 - Chihiro 9 - Mikan 10 - Shuichi 11 - Sayaka 12 - Ibuki
Admittedly, Mikan is the person who probably makes it most of the way through as the goat. But that's my guess.
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Monomi
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Post by Monomi on Aug 21, 2018 21:25:49 GMT
we may replace junko before this episode is over
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Monaca Towa
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Post by Monaca Towa on Aug 21, 2018 21:46:15 GMT
we may replace junko before this episode is over Ummm what if her tribe loses and votes her out?
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Monokuma
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Post by Monokuma on Aug 21, 2018 21:53:30 GMT
That's the 'may' part
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Santa Shikiba
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Episode 2
Aug 21, 2018 22:08:15 GMT
via mobile
Post by Santa Shikiba on Aug 21, 2018 22:08:15 GMT
I feel like the Mediators are so close to picking up the Q thing but can't quite get there.
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Monokuma
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Post by Monokuma on Aug 21, 2018 22:09:51 GMT
OK, I Finally got done with all the confessionals of players who weren't voted out. I really, realy hope Himiko does more. This is really unfortunate, because I like Coug and think he could do really well if he had the time/effort. On the other hand, I'm still not sure if Junko exists, and dear christ I feel bad for Sonia because she got rotten luck with her clique.If I had to predict 12 player merge right now purely based off of their ability to make it to merge it would look something like this: 1 - Celestia 2 - Makoto 3 - Yasuhiro 4 - Gonta 5 - Akane - BIG DIVIDE- 6 - Leon 7 - Hiyoko 8 - Chihiro 9 - Mikan 10 - Shuichi 11 - Sayaka 12 - Ibuki Admittedly, Mikan is the person who probably makes it most of the way through as the goat. But that's my guess. Hey, two of our pure newbies made your list
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Post by Great Gozu on Aug 21, 2018 22:10:52 GMT
OK, I Finally got done with all the confessionals of players who weren't voted out. I really, realy hope Himiko does more. This is really unfortunate, because I like Coug and think he could do really well if he had the time/effort. On the other hand, I'm still not sure if Junko exists, and dear christ I feel bad for Sonia because she got rotten luck with her clique.If I had to predict 12 player merge right now purely based off of their ability to make it to merge it would look something like this: 1 - Celestia 2 - Makoto 3 - Yasuhiro 4 - Gonta 5 - Akane - BIG DIVIDE- 6 - Leon 7 - Hiyoko 8 - Chihiro 9 - Mikan 10 - Shuichi 11 - Sayaka 12 - Ibuki Admittedly, Mikan is the person who probably makes it most of the way through as the goat. But that's my guess. Hey, two of our pure newbies made your list Which ones? Inquiring specs want to know.
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Monomi
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Post by Monomi on Aug 21, 2018 22:13:39 GMT
we've already said too much!
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Post by Great Gozu on Aug 21, 2018 23:26:48 GMT
OK, here's the fun part. I'm going to bother ranking all the tribes, let's go. Not a specific power ranking, more of a "chance to survive this tribe" thing. Starting at the top:
MONOKUMA'S MEDIATORS:
1. GONTA GOKUHARA - I feel like Gonta basically owns this tribe. From what I can tell he has a three-person alliance of sorts with Gundham and Sayaka. With a solid alliance going and a good strategic mindset, Gonta's the tribal powerhouse on this group, I think.
2. GUNDHAM TANAKA - I'm willing to place Gundham above Sayaka here mostly because I believe that Gundham knows better than anyone where he lies in this tribe without a proper tribemate, so if things start to look shaky on his current alliance I believe he's more than willing to rock the boat in order to make it through.
3. SAYAKA MAIZONO - If Sayaka wasn't a part of this alliance with Gonta and Gundham, I'd have her much farther down this list. I doubt she's in any serious trouble on this tribe, but I'm unsure on Sayaka's stragetic mindset and she seems generally uneasy.
4. MAKOTO NAEGI - Makoto's got a good gameplaying head on his shoulders, and with his best ally from Rascals in Leon, I doubt he'll run into any serious issues. He also seems to be fairly well liked, so I like his chances.
5. LEON KUWATA - Honestly, having a solid ally is enough to get Leon a #5 slot on this tribe. He seems positioned well enough, but I don't have too much of a feel for him yet.
6. KOREKIYO SHINGUJI - I really, really like Korekiyo. I just wish they hadn't started quite this late, so that's going to make it hard to recover. But Korekiyo's got some time to make it up given the last two picks and that I think the tribe has this challenge easily, and given the people behind them, I doubt they'll be in trouble for a while.
7. HIMIKO YUMENO - I'm unsure if Himiko knows how much time you need to sink into this. Her allies are on other tribes, she's not around much, and even her allies call her sketchy. I don't see much in the way of longer term prospects.
8. JUNKO ENOSHIMA - Doesn't exist. Due for a replacement or a boot soon.
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Monokuma
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Post by Monokuma on Aug 21, 2018 23:42:00 GMT
Oooooo neat *popcorn*
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Post by Great Gozu on Aug 21, 2018 23:42:50 GMT
Honestly, this tribe confuses me. I know so very little about this tribe I may as well be picking pusedo-randomly. We'll see how this list shakes up when they enter TC.
MONOMI'S MEDIATORS
1. YASUHIRO HAGAKURE - With a solid (?) ally in Sonia and as seemingly attractive to other people as a top model, Yasuhiro has what it takes to go far. And I doubt he'll even be on anyone's hitist for some time, even to the point where we may see alliances fall to keep him around.
2. SHUICHI SAIHARA - Shucihi seems fairly confident in himself and has at least mentioned the possibility of a Green/Blue alliance, which I think is pretty likely to take shape in this tribe. Seems to be liked well enough to get this kind of thing going.
3. CHIHIRO FUJISAKI - With the possibility of a G/B alliance, Chihiro's value goes up on this tribe. While I'd otherwise see her as fairly MOR in this tribe, I think she'd settle into this alliance fairly well, and wouldn't be seen as an obvious threat/leader to deal with.
4. IBUKI MIODA - Honestly, people seem to like Ibuki well enough. I doubt we'll see much from her directly, more what other people do for her later on.
5. KIRUMI TOJO - I'm incredibly concerned for Kirumi's longterm survivability as anything other than a replacement goat for Mikan later. But for now, with a potential majority alliance on the rise, I think she'll be fine.
6. SONIA NEVERMIND - Who??? Seriously, I was making this list and actually put Sayaka in this spot because I thought she was here too. But I think people actively have issues with Mikan and Toko, so Sonia won't be on the block for a while. Plus, at least she came here with someone.
7. MIKAN TSUMIKI - Some people seemingly have issues with her or consider her weak TC fodder. If she makes it through this tribe, she'll probably become a goat. If not, then I doubt anyone will care.
8. TOKO FUKAWA - Bottom-tier for now due to late start and lack of connections, but I think people could catch onto Toko fast if they don't go to TC. We'll see about this one.
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Post by Great Gozu on Aug 22, 2018 0:00:49 GMT
Final tribe, and honestly the most interesting one. This tribe is a legitimate onion ready to peel into tears. I want this drama.
KUROKUMA'S KINGPINS
1. CELESTIA LUDENBERG - Celestia seems to be bearing the majority of this tribe's fruit while doing much less of the work. Serious contender material here. Looking like a potential G/R majority alliance here after a TC with a 6-person alliance surrounding it.
2. AKANE OWARI - Seemingly Celestia's actual #1 with a solid ally of her own from the Leaders in the mix, Akane's doing very well for herself in this tribe. Lots of game sense, too.
3. NAGITO KOMEADA - Really, Nagito's a part of the majority alliance and Akane is closer to him and Celestia is to Kyoko. That's all this comes down to.
4. KYOKO KIRIGIRI - See: Nagito, but in reverse. Although I do like Koyko, I just don't see her gaining much but a free ride here.
5. HIYOKO SAIONJI - Part of the 6-person majority alliance (Although this seems like overkill to me), but I like Hiyoko's long-term chances more than Chiaki's. Otherwise, they're about the same to me.
6. CHIAKI NANMI - I don't think Chiaki has a single idea what's going on in this tribe. And in survivor, lac of knowledge is what kills you most of the time. I wonder for Chiaki's gamesense in general, honestly.
7.KAEDE AKAMATSU - Hard to message isn't a trait you want to have in this game. Kaede's TC fodder for sure whenever they need it.
8. KOICHI OMA - What is Koicihi doing on this tribe? Pissing everyone off. That's all.
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Monaca Towa
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Let's all be friends and kill the adults <3 xoxo
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Post by Monaca Towa on Aug 22, 2018 0:27:22 GMT
These perceptions are all over the place...
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Post by Great Gozu on Aug 22, 2018 0:29:04 GMT
I barely understand what that even means. I assume it's least to most liked.
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Monaca Towa
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Let's all be friends and kill the adults <3 xoxo
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Post by Monaca Towa on Aug 22, 2018 0:30:30 GMT
I think so too, what makes no sense are her perceptions on how "she's the only one who likes akane" and Kyoko being above Celestia...just perplexing.
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Post by Great Gozu on Aug 22, 2018 0:32:46 GMT
The more I look at that list the more I don't understand, and I think it may best be left not fully understood...
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Monaca Towa
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Post by Monaca Towa on Aug 22, 2018 0:32:49 GMT
Also uhhhh what are the Masterminds doing? They don't have a final list put together and have less than 30 mins.
So sad because Gonta had such a good strategy going in...
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Monomi
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Post by Monomi on Aug 22, 2018 0:33:47 GMT
I am pretty sure Hiyoko is making a list of her preferences, not trying to rank the tribe!
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Post by Great Gozu on Aug 22, 2018 0:34:44 GMT
Yeah, it's definitely a preference list (from least to most liked) but her conclusions are the weird part.
Also, if Junko goes home because the tribe forgets to submit I'll throw a laughing fit.
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Monaca Towa
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Post by Monaca Towa on Aug 22, 2018 0:38:06 GMT
Looks like they will submit something, but yeah that would be epic Also I loved your lists so much Gozu that I'm going to quote them and point out the differences I see, because...honestly we see eye to eye on most of these.
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Monaca Towa
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Let's all be friends and kill the adults <3 xoxo
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Post by Monaca Towa on Aug 22, 2018 0:49:40 GMT
OK, here's the fun part. I'm going to bother ranking all the tribes, let's go. Not a specific power ranking, more of a "chance to survive this tribe" thing. Starting at the top: MONOKUMA'S MEDIATORS:1. GONTA GOKUHARA - I feel like Gonta basically owns this tribe. From what I can tell he has a three-person alliance of sorts with Gundham and Sayaka. With a solid alliance going and a good strategic mindset, Gonta's the tribal powerhouse on this group, I think. 2. GUNDHAM TANAKA - I'm willing to place Gundham above Sayaka here mostly because I believe that Gundham knows better than anyone where he lies in this tribe without a proper tribemate, so if things start to look shaky on his current alliance I believe he's more than willing to rock the boat in order to make it through. 3. SAYAKA MAIZONO - If Sayaka wasn't a part of this alliance with Gonta and Gundham, I'd have her much farther down this list. I doubt she's in any serious trouble on this tribe, but I'm unsure on Sayaka's stragetic mindset and she seems generally uneasy.
4. MAKOTO NAEGI - Makoto's got a good gameplaying head on his shoulders, and with his best ally from Rascals in Leon, I doubt he'll run into any serious issues. He also seems to be fairly well liked, so I like his chances.
5. LEON KUWATA - Honestly, having a solid ally is enough to get Leon a #5 slot on this tribe. He seems positioned well enough, but I don't have too much of a feel for him yet.
6. KOREKIYO SHINGUJI - I really, really like Korekiyo. I just wish they hadn't started quite this late, so that's going to make it hard to recover. But Korekiyo's got some time to make it up given the last two picks and that I think the tribe has this challenge easily, and given the people behind them, I doubt they'll be in trouble for a while.
7. HIMIKO YUMENO - I'm unsure if Himiko knows how much time you need to sink into this. Her allies are on other tribes, she's not around much, and even her allies call her sketchy. I don't see much in the way of longer term prospects.
8. JUNKO ENOSHIMA - Doesn't exist. Due for a replacement or a boot soon.Monaca's thoughts: I pretty much agree with everything on this list. I have nothing to add. To me this seems spot on. Honestly, this tribe confuses me. I know so very little about this tribe I may as well be picking pusedo-randomly. We'll see how this list shakes up when they enter TC.MONOMI'S MEDIATORS1. YASUHIRO HAGAKURE - With a solid (?) ally in Sonia and as seemingly attractive to other people as a top model, Yasuhiro has what it takes to go far. And I doubt he'll even be on anyone's hitist for some time, even to the point where we may see alliances fall to keep him around.
2. SHUICHI SAIHARA - Shucihi seems fairly confident in himself and has at least mentioned the possibility of a Green/Blue alliance, which I think is pretty likely to take shape in this tribe. Seems to be liked well enough to get this kind of thing going.
3. CHIHIRO FUJISAKI - With the possibility of a G/B alliance, Chihiro's value goes up on this tribe. While I'd otherwise see her as fairly MOR in this tribe, I think she'd settle into this alliance fairly well, and wouldn't be seen as an obvious threat/leader to deal with.
4. IBUKI MIODA - Honestly, people seem to like Ibuki well enough. I doubt we'll see much from her directly, more what other people do for her later on.
5. KIRUMI TOJO - I'm incredibly concerned for Kirumi's longterm survivability as anything other than a replacement goat for Mikan later. But for now, with a potential majority alliance on the rise, I think she'll be fine.
6. SONIA NEVERMIND - Who??? Seriously, I was making this list and actually put Sayaka in this spot because I thought she was here too. But I think people actively have issues with Mikan and Toko, so Sonia won't be on the block for a while. Plus, at least she came here with someone.
7. MIKAN TSUMIKI - Some people seemingly have issues with her or consider her weak TC fodder. If she makes it through this tribe, she'll probably become a goat. If not, then I doubt anyone will care.
8. TOKO FUKAWA - Bottom-tier for now due to late start and lack of connections, but I think people could catch onto Toko fast if they don't go to TC. We'll see about this one.
Monaca's thoughts: Yasuhiro is definitely the heart and center of this tribe. I would place Kirumi higher than Chihiro & Ibuki because I think she and Shuchi are close and both could be a deadly strategic pair if push comes to shove. Toko and Mikan are neck in neck in terms of survivability, so it's difficult to say who is lower than whom. Otherwise the rest of this seems spot on. Final tribe, and honestly the most interesting one. This tribe is a legitimate onion ready to peel into tears. I want this drama. KUROKUMA'S KINGPINS1. CELESTIA LUDENBERG - Celestia seems to be bearing the majority of this tribe's fruit while doing much less of the work. Serious contender material here. Looking like a potential G/R majority alliance here after a TC with a 6-person alliance surrounding it.
2. AKANE OWARI - Seemingly Celestia's actual #1 with a solid ally of her own from the Leaders in the mix, Akane's doing very well for herself in this tribe. Lots of game sense, too.
3. NAGITO KOMEADA - Really, Nagito's a part of the majority alliance and Akane is closer to him and Celestia is to Kyoko. That's all this comes down to.
4. KYOKO KIRIGIRI - See: Nagito, but in reverse. Although I do like Koyko, I just don't see her gaining much but a free ride here.
5. HIYOKO SAIONJI - Part of the 6-person majority alliance (Although this seems like overkill to me), but I like Hiyoko's long-term chances more than Chiaki's. Otherwise, they're about the same to me.
6. CHIAKI NANMI - I don't think Chiaki has a single idea what's going on in this tribe. And in survivor, lac of knowledge is what kills you most of the time. I wonder for Chiaki's gamesense in general, honestly.
7.KAEDE AKAMATSU - Hard to message isn't a trait you want to have in this game. Kaede's TC fodder for sure whenever they need it.
8. KOICHI OMA - What is Koicihi doing on this tribe? Pissing everyone off. That's all.Monaca's Thoughts: I definitely agree about Celestia...she is in a scary good position. A lot of people like her and she seems to be playing a very very great game. I dislike Hiyoko and I think she is a little...misguided in her ways, but I can't honestly put her above Kyoko or below Chiaki because that does seem to be where she fits currently. I think you were basically spot on here. Nice work Gozu!!! Very nice summary I am questioning if you factored cliques into the equation or not though.
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Monaca Towa
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Let's all be friends and kill the adults <3 xoxo
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Post by Monaca Towa on Aug 22, 2018 0:57:49 GMT
Gundham's latest confessionals make me wonder if his paranoia will help or be a hindrance in a bit.
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Post by Great Gozu on Aug 22, 2018 1:01:49 GMT
I didn't really, honestly. Some cliques seem to work better than others, and factoring in cliques seemed like a massive disservice to Sonia, who's kinda of already in a bad spot.
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Monaca Towa
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Post by Monaca Towa on Aug 22, 2018 1:03:56 GMT
True.
I just think the Gonta/Nagito/Shuichi clique and the Makoto/Kyoko/Kirumi cliques might have factoring that are worth considering.
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Post by Great Gozu on Aug 22, 2018 2:06:46 GMT
Oof. Replacing in now is a bad time, but if Teruteru shows any modicum of competence he'll survive a TC or two.
EDIT@ Monaca: Honestly, you're super right about those cliques. I'm really excited for those two in particular.
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