So last time I judged people by how likely they were to make the merge. I'm keeping some of that reasoning, but I'm changing how I judge people slightly. Instead of "likely to make merge/FTC" I'm instead going to judge people based on their likelihood of surviving their current circumstances. I think the biggest shock to me on my last list is that I thought Kirumi was a top contender, and her almost elim sorta made me question a lot.
Here we go. Red Light = Likely in danger, Yellow Light = Could be safe/in danger, Green Light = Likely safe
RED LIGHT:20.
Gonta-While he has some wiggle room on his tribe, it's minimal. With Akane, Celestia, & Kyoko as a tight threesome, even if Ibuki tries to pull something off it would be highly unlikely that it would work. He MIGHT have an opening as people aren't completely closed off to a Kyoko vote. But even that will only buy him time. If his tribe goes to two tribals, then my guess is that he's dead in the water. Former assessment: #1 FTC contender. This really disappoints me because even Gonta has acknowledged how screwed he is in his confessional. And honestly? It's simply because of being swapfucked. I feel bad, and if he does survive his stock will go up incredibly high.
19.
Kyoko-Mistakenly thinks she is on top of her tribe. I noticed this false sense of security in my last assessment and it is entirely plausible we will see that implode here. If Gonta or Ibuki find an opening on the tribe, we could very well see Kyoko be the first boot if she takes what she has for granted. A wake up call to show her she is far from on top would be nice. Yes, she might be popular, and yes Celestia might like her, but Akane doesn't seem as solid. If she can get rid of Gonta her stock goes up a bit. Former Assessment: Potential to make merge. Still true, but to a lesser degree because she mistakenly thinks she runs this game which could be her downfall.
18.
Chihiro-Another person who could be in trouble because of a bad swap. She is with Chiaki from her clique and it is entirely plausible that Gundham will swap with her, but if her tribe goes to tribal, she will likely be a target. I think she likely suspects she is a target, but it's not an impossible situation. Fortunate does not favor this swap for Chihrio which will make Yasuhiro feel very sad if she goes. Former Assessment: Likely to make merge. If her luck holds out and she can use the situation to her advantage, I think she has a shot of surviving, but her odds have lessened because of this swap.
17.
Teruteru-Odds have increased greatly since being a replacement for Junko. However, he's not out of the water. The swap still hasn't favored Teruteru, mostly because he is still seen as the replacement and is on a team with three active people. However, there are cracks. If he can appeal to Nagito's want to get rid of Hiyoko, we could see his stock go up greatly. Former Assessment: Least Likely to Make Merge. Not untrue, however I think he is more likely to make the merge than he was when he entered the game. It all depends on how this tribe goes and how well he can connect with the right people
16.
Korekiyo-Similar to Teruteru, but different because they seem active. yes, they are a tad...strange, at least to Yasu, but I would like to think at a tribal, they would fare a little better than Teruteru based on social connections. I might be misreading the situation here, but it's plausible that Korekiyo will fit right in and make it far. It's more than likely a tossup between him and Teruteru for the first vote, but maybe if he links up with Nagito and takes a stab at Hiyoko maybe that assessment will flip. Former Assessment: Least Likely to Make Merge. Given the standing, I still think this to be true, but it's possible for a merge to be in sight for this transfer student.
15.
Shuichi-Is in a very precarious situation. Yes he has Kirumi, but he is also dealing with the Sonia & Mikan pairing. At this point he either needs to hope his fake idol works or Nagito gives him that hidden idol. In addition, if he can convince Sayaka to vote Sonia with them, his stock might go up. It's not a hopeless situation, which is why he is not on the bottom completely, but he's far from out of hot water. Former Assessment: FTC Contender. If he can play his cards right, I still think he has a shot, but after the way things fell apart on the last tribe, I'm not as convinced he is going as far as I originally predicted.
YELLOW LIGHT:
14.
Sonia-This could go either way. Either Sayaka and Mikan stick with Sonia, or Sonia gets out by a transferred idol, or Sayaka flips against Sonia, or maybe for some strange reason Sonia and Kirumi get over their beef with each other and work together. Previously I didn't see Sonia as much of a presence, but that vote against Kirumi really showed her true colors of what she is capable of. I am not counting her out until the votes show up against her. She is a fierce social player, however she may have played her hand a liiiittle too soon. It also doesn't help that she was literally swapped with the two people who have it out for her. Former Assessment: Unlikely to Make Merge. This may be true if things don't play out well for her.
13.
Kirumi-I think she came back into the game in a not great position. The only reason I have not put her in the red zone is because Shuichi is a higher target than her at the moment, plus she may do well enough in challenges that she avoids enough tribals to survive, if she is around long enough from her trip. A lot of things are working against her, but all hope is not lost for this returnee. Former Assessment: FTC Contender. I'm not sure anymore about this one. Given she was voted out once, I may have overestimated her threat level, which is a bummer because I still think she could be a dark horse. My guess is that she will not make FTC, and will be lucky to make the final merge.
12.
Chiaki-I'll be the first to admit I underestimated Chiaki's threat level. She is clearly playing one hell of a social game. That being said her situation is a touch precarious. Given that she would need Gundham's vote not to be in a minority, it's not favorable. However, Chihiro seems like she would be a more likely boot first and that it would take two tribals to get rid of her, or if Gundham flips, then she is sitting in a stronger position. Either way, she's not as in danger as her cliquemate. Former Assessment: Unlikely to Make Merge. I was wrong about this one. I think Chiaki has a decent shot at making the merge, and with the right people could go very far in this game. I'm watching her more than I did when we initially met her.
11.
Makoto-This swap was not perfect for him. However, he's likely not in danger. He has Leon, and in theory has Gundham. So long as this holds up he will be fine. Plus he has his legacy advantage still. In theory, Makoto would be just fine. But he, himself, has pointed out how threatening he and Leon might be to Gundham which could cause their former Mastermind to flip on them. So long as that doesn't happen, he will likely enter the merge in a strong position. Former Assessment: FTC Contender. So long as he survives this tribe, that is still a distinct possibility.
10.
Hiyoko-Thinks she is in good with Nagito and Yasuhiro. This might be true, but we could see an upset if Nagito decides to take matters in his own hands. The gears are already turning in his confessional. A lot of Hiyoko's ability to survive is to perceive whether or not people are really with or against her. Yasu is likely gonna work with her, but she needs to not just assume she has people in her corner. Assumptions are the #1 killer in survivor. Former Assessment: Likely to Make Merge. Might be true still, depends on how things go with this tribe.
9.
Mikan-Not as bad on the food chain because Sayaka has made it perfectly clear she does not plan on ever voting Mikan. However, if Kirumi and Shuichi have their way and Sonia goes, Mikan could be in a bad spot. That being said, she's survived some pretty phenomenal odds thus far, but most of it wasn't because of her, but other people. This makes her prime goat material later on in a merge, making it more likely she will survive till then. Her stock has gone way up on this new tribe, but she's still not in the clear yet. Depends on how this next vote goes. Former Assessment: Least Likely to Make Merge. I think I didn't assess this correctly at first, but I'm seeing it more clearly than I have before. Will be interesting to see how her bonds with Sayaka and Sonia get her farther or not.
8.
Ibuki-Decently positioned, however she has the boon of being on a tribe with three former close tribemates. However, the gears in her head are already turning and we can see her wanting to potentially be considering Kyoko. If she keeps her options open and explores possibilities with others, Akane and Gonta specifically, I think she might find herself in a great position. In any case, she is not the obvious boot so her stock has gone up a lot. Former Assessment: Potential to make merge. I think her stock has gone up. Depends on how many tribals she goes to and what choices she makes.
7.
Leon-It's really hard to get an accurate read on this guy. He's made it a point not to have a confessional, so a lot of what I can base this on is what other people say about him. He seems social, he seems like he is in a decent spot, and he has at least one close ally who would likely go before him based on what others are saying. A lot of how far he goes depends on whether Gundham flips on him or not. It also depends on how connected he actually is, which is a bit of a mystery. Former Assessment: Potential to Make Merge. This feels about right still.
GREEN LIGHT:6.
Sayaka-Phenomenally swapped. Has a great shot at surviving this tribe and will likely make it far. Depends on her choices and how many tribals they go to. But I don't think Sayaka can make a bad choice. Even getting rid of Sonia is decent. It all depends on what she values though. Will she chose to stick by Mikan even at the expense of her game? Will she side with Sonia and Mikan and watch as Shuichi/Kirumi pick them off using idols? Will she tie a vote? Will she flip? The biggest thing about Sayaka right now is that she's perfectly positioned. The world is her oyster. Former Assessment: Likely To Make Merge. Still true. I think we are going to see Sayaka around for a long time.
5.
Celestia-Still the creme of the crop. I still think she is a likely idol target at the merge, but right now she is on top of the world. Everyone wants to be her, everyone wants to be like her, and everyone wants to work with her. I will be shook if she gets the boot on this tribe. The queen of the social game. I think the ONLY thing not going for her is that she is too likable. This could bite her later on. Former Assessment: Likely To Make Merge. Yup definitely still true.
4.
Yasuhiro-Great position and good social vibe. He is in a great spot. The only thing that could come back to bite him is whether or not Nagito gets trigger happy on Hiyoko. If Hiyoko goes, he may move into a yellow light spot. Even if he does though, my guess is he is social enough he will bounce back even if that happens. He's just been a stellar player thus far and I still think he's gonna go far. Former Assessment: FTC Contender. Definitely still true. Yasuhiro is a force.
3.
Gundham-Is in a great position, but may not see it. Sure he may be 3rd in either alliance on his tribe, but that's likely all he will need to be. Gundham isn't stupid and is right in the middle sweet spot you want to be on any tribe. I think he is going to make great choices and figure out what is best for him. He just seems like he will be the least likely to go prior to a merge. Former Assessment: FTC Contender. Definitely still true. If he continues to walk the line I think he's going to be strongly positioned in a merge.
2.
Nagito-2 idols. Not the obvious first boot. I feel like this one speaks for itself. He is clearly smart, intuitive, and has options. I have nothing but glowing things to say about Nagito. It will be a joy to see how he plays going forward. Former Assessment: Potential to Make Merge. I think I undersold him a bit. Plus finding two idols greatly increased his stock. I think he not only will survive, but will thrive.
1.
Akane-Damn girl. Way to be epic. You got this! You are close with Ibuki & Celeste which might make for the strongest position out of anyone on your tribe. Kyoko mistakenly thinks she has this in the bag, but you have a realistic assessment and know how well you are positioned. I'm sorta blown away how you've come into your own on this one. Former Assessment: Likely To Make Merge. I would go as far to say you are officially FTC material at this point. I think you have a great shot to go all the way if you keep playing the excellent way you are.